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China's 2008 GDP numbers: good or bad?Posted by Joel Martinsen on Friday, January 23, 2009 at 3:12 PM
At a press conference yesterday, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced GDP figures for 2008. Most of today's newspapers reported the key numbers, which included an annual growth rate of 9%, a fourth-quarter growth rate of 6.8%, and an annual CPI growth rate of 5.9%. The majority of papers led with some variation on the neutral headline "Last year's GDP grew 9%". Some chose to highlight absolute figures, as in the Beijing Morning Post's declaration, "Last year's GDP broke 30 trillion," while others took more of a local focus, as in the Chinese Business View's reporting of the numbers for Shaanxi Province: "15.6%: Seven years of continuous high growth for the provincial GDP." On the negative side of things, the Southern Metropolis Daily and The Beijing News noted that 9% was a seven-year low for GDP growth. Both newspapers are ventures of the Southern Media Group, which occupies the liberal end of the spectrum of Chinese media. Last April, commentary it published in the wake of the Lhasa riots sparked a massive flame war that pitted "angry youth" who frequent nationalist-leaning forums against China's liberal press. Wen Feng (aka. Mei Ninghua, president of the Beijing Daily Group), wrote an op-ed for the Beijing Evening News at the height of the controversy that delivered a concise summary of Southern Media Group's reputation, chock-full of ironic scare-quotes:
The Beijing News, which is operated through a partnership with the Guangming Daily (headline: "2008 Gross Domestic Product Increases 9%"), ran with this headline at the top of the page:
A similar headline was used in the group's flagship newspaper, the Southern Metropolis Daily:
On the other side of the aisle is the Global Times, a sibling of the People's Daily that often gets called "nationalistic" or even "jingoistic." Here's the headline and first paragraph of that paper's defiant front page report:
The article goes on to cite doom and gloom predictions from The Wall Street Journal, Le Monde, The Times of London, and The Los Angeles Times. By framing the debate over the meaning of China's GDP numbers as yet another us-versus-them argument in which domestic cheerleaders face off against global forces eager to see China fail, the Global Times misrepresents the Chinese media as speaking with one voice and ignores the real differences of opinion that do exist. Links and Sources
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Comments on China's 2008 GDP numbers: good or bad?
At the end of the day, the published GDP growth figure doesn't matter as much as tangible economic factors like employment, income, and the affordability of goods. So regardless of how it is reported, the facts on the ground so to speak will not change. Of course media reports have a role in shaping expectations, but people are far more concerned with their personal economic situation than that of the nation.
Danwei seldom takes a position on the news it covers. you should do it more often.
I'm curious how reliable this figure actually is. Provinces are renowned for massaging their growth figures, and this is an aggregate of all the provinces put together, plus it would be in the interest of the CCP to then tweak the national number.
I mean, think about it: in the last year the stock market has tumbled 65%; real estate in many key markets has fallen 20%+, exports have tanked, imports are suffering - yes, consumer spending is up. But where is this 6.8% growth, year on year? All I hear from my Chinese friends is how tough times are, how many can't find jobs or afford the things they covet.
What sort of independent agency vets the numbers touted by the central government? Should we trust these figures?
nothing to worry about china's economy.ups and downs are taken for granted in the long term devolopment.and the capabality of chinese leaders to handle crutial situation is well known, their infrastructure spending is world famous. so 9% GDP growth is not that much bad wt western writers are showing.
How do you know the Stats bureau use provincial numbers, do you have a source?
According to this article (link):
"The GDP calculation is complicated with collecting all the annual reports and financial data which could only be gradually obtained, said Ma."
So these numbers are not final.
I agree with slowboat - more commentary would be welcome.
Yes, the Global Times loves to talk about the foreign media "ganging up" on China - was anyone expecting anything different?
Again we face the revision of "liquid" figures. 9% growth to reach RMB30 trn in 2008? Let us consider the official figures for GDP in 2007, which is still published as RMB24.953trn, which would make RMB30trn a 20.5% growth over 2007, which means the 2007 figure has quietly been revised upwards, although not in official print (and no longer available on the NBS website). Even so, based on the published figures for 2007, the total GDP figure given in the NBS Yearbook was 2% more than the sum of the provincial GDPs, printed in the same book.
As with stock market value, actual GDP figures are often a poor indicator of what is really going on. More reliable, probably, are the growth rates published, which tend to reflect reality, whatever that is.
I concur with "Fake Chinese" that the best indicators are those tagible factors such as employment, prices, availability and variety of goods, that mark out a measure of progress.