The Thomas Crampton Channel

Bleak outlook for China and Asia

China and Asia face bleak economic prospects in the wake of the last month's financial turmoil, according to this lively explanation by analyst/economist David Roche.

Do you agree with his views?
There are currently 12 Comments for Bleak outlook for China and Asia.

Comments on Bleak outlook for China and Asia

Agree that Korea is the most screwed. China is probably not far behind and would be even worse if not for currency controls. Best off would probably be Thailand (not Singapore), because the food is good and you get to live in Thailand. In Singapore, you have to deal with the annoying accents and it is more difficult to get a taxi than even Shanghai despite being a developed country.

Not convinced, seems to me 2.5 years is an arbitrary figure.

Firstly, no one really fully understands what are the real liabilities of these banks institutions, nor how political agendas will effect monetary policy. Secondly, in order to calculate how widespread the repercussions will be, how fast they will spread, and how long they will last, many other things need to be taken into account. For instance scarcity and dependance on finite resources, and change in our global eco-system.

Decoupling may not be an option, but a necessity in a drastic situation.

So that's what an economist sounds like drunk!

this is a great piece of footage.

thomas, you have a knack of being in the right places at the right time. keep it up.

and for the record, i think the recent, symbolic gesture, of the chinese government to allow "peasant" landowners to "sell" their land, will save china from economic collapse.

p.s arbitrary my arse

it may seem like another of those, sweeping under the carpet moments of the Party, but it should work. who knows?

what an arse

this is a great piece of footage.

thomas, you have a knack of being in the right places at the right time. keep it up.

and for the record, i think the recent, symbolic gesture, of the chinese government to allow "peasant" landowners to "sell" their land, will save china from economic collapse.

p.s arbitrary my arse

it may seem like another of those, sweeping under the carpet moments of the Party, but it should work. who knows?

that's what I hate about qualitative economics, people can just made up whatever they want as long as it sort of made sense. Please interview someone like Robert Solow or Ray Fair so we can have some real marco economic analyis with at least some model building.

Also in regarding Singapore. In a crisis that will hit credit and trade the most, somehow singapore, a country that imports 202% of its GDP and exports 231% of it's GDP (as of 2007) and gross capital formation driving 23% of its GDP will fare best among much more self sufficient economies is mind boggling. I would pick East Timor, I mean how could it get any worse. Or maybe Brunei, aka the Asian UAE

This guy SHOULD be a politician. Love the random "FU" in the middle of his complicated (yet insightful) metaphorical explanation....

'Arbitrary my arse' you say?

Then could someone (preferably soberly), explain the fundementals which explain this '2.5 year economic recovery' ?

This guy is making sense. My arse.

@qualitative analysis only

For all their numbers and rationality, an awful lot of quantitative economists failed to predict or understand what happened in the last two months.

There is definitely a role for quantitative analysis, but I would argue there is a very important role for qualitative analysis. Humans and economies are not always rational.

If you don't pay attention to David Roche, you do so to your own peril. I read "New Monetarism" before it caught-on and my intelligence team has looked into his past analyses going way back. He's been so correct most of the time that it's scary.

do!

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