The Thomas Crampton Channel

UBS Economist: Olympics "No Big Deal"

Journalist and blogger Thomas Crampton is now posting some of his work on Danwei.

Jonathan Anderson, an economist at UBS, today released a study using Olympic history and population to assess likely economic impact of the Beijing Olympics on China's economy.

His conclusion: The Olympics are "no big deal".

We published this chart twice before in our Asian economics coverage - but with the continued flood of interest around the opening of the 2008 Olympic Games and the seemingly endless questions about what they mean for Chinese growth, we thought this would make an ideal initiation for our EM Daily Chart series.

What we've done in the chart is to take the host cities for every summer Olympics, beginning with Munich in 1972 and ending with London in 2012, and show the ratio of the metropolitan area population as a share of national population for the country in question. This is a good minimum proxy indicator for the relative size of the city economy in national GDP (minimum, since urban incomes are almost universally higher than rural incomes).

Look at Athens in 2004, Seoul in 1988, Sydney in 2000; these Olympic games were clearly a "big deal" for the countries in question, since the host cities accounted for 20% to 40% of national population and almost certainly an even higher share of national income.

Now look at Beijing 2008. As it turns out, Beijing comprises a total of 1.1% of the Chinese population and around 2.5% of Chinese GDP - the lowest ratio for any Olympic games in the past 30 years and likely the lowest ratio for any Olympic games in modern recorded history.

The only other instance that even came close was Atlanta in 1996, and as best we can measure the Atlanta Olympics were emphatically not a "big deal" for the US economy in that year. Sure enough, our estimates for China put the impact of the 2008 Olympics far behind the decimal point in terms of growth impact as well.

 
There are currently 4 Comments for UBS Economist: Olympics "No Big Deal".

Comments on UBS Economist: Olympics "No Big Deal"

Granted, economically the Olympics is no big deal. If I remembered correctly, which I am not sure, even President Hu himself said not to have unrealistic expectations of the Olympics economically.

What is the real big deal is the impact it will have on China both culturally and politically.

For the past 7 years, and especially so for the year leading up to the opening ceremony, the common Chinese people have be exposed to western ideas, philosophy, and culture like they never have before. And believe me, the central government wouldn't admit it, but organizing the Olympics have allowed them to get a better understanding of western culture and get a since of how far behind they are of international standards and how much more they have to go if they want more respect at an international level.

Besides, the Olympic games is more than about marketing and profits, it's about the Olympic spirit. It's about athletes comping from all nations putting aside their differences to celebrate human triumph and the human spirit, remember? Oh yeah, that was sold to the highest bidder long ago by the capitalists. Shame...

No big deal except for all of the water and power diverted to BJ, the factories closed and the laborers booted without pay from the city.

nanheyangrouchuan. Can I ask is that really true? I think that is shocking, I heard about the power restrictions. Seems about seven years of planning has been a big farce.

诚然,奥运对北京经济的拉动作用远远不能影响到GDP。但是不要忘记这些年中国GDP的拉动是靠外资,准确说是外商投资。奥运对中国经济的意义在于改变外国人对中国的“看法”,从而进一步拉动在华投资。不过目前好像出了点状况,也就是投资过剩,也就是我们说的“热钱”。当然整个奥运计划不是2008才做的,估计在2005年指定奥运方案的时候,那时候正是投资拉动GDP大幅增长的时候,当局并没有意识到2008年会出现这样的状况。

Post a comment

All comments are moderated and subject to review by Danwei contributors and editors, but well-grounded and articulate comments will be published regardless of which way they lean. Because comments published on any website ultimately contribute to the character of that website, we may decline to publish comments that are irrelevant, redundant, or that do not adhere to generally accepted standards of courtesy; if you are looking for a fight, there are plenty of other venues available online.


Some useful html: <b>bold</b>, <i>italic</i>,
<a href="http://www.danwei.org">link</a>

Danwei Model Workers
laomo2008fpA.jpg
Recommended blogs and new media
China Media Timeline
Major media events over the last three decades
Books on China
Leslie_Chang_Factory_Girls_s.jpg
To die poor is a sin: An excerpt of Factory Girls by Leslie T. Chang.
In Wang Shuo's No Man's Land: Geremie Barme addresses Wang Shuo's 千万别把我当人.
Swimming with Mao, a memoir essay: This memoir piece is by Xujun Eberlein, author of the new short story book Apologies Forthcoming'.
Front Page of the Day
A different newspaper every weekday
From the Vault
Classic Danwei posts
+ Public intellectuals on the road to debauchery? (2004.12): Southern People Weekly gets the authorities in a snit with its feature on Public Intellectuals.
+ Apathy -- Glimpses Inside the Chinese Media by Ann Condi (2006.12): What do people think when they are shown a tool to help them access off-limits sections of the Internet?
+ Ex-cons writing about prison life (2007.04): Four Walls (四面墙) by Zhang Chunlei (张春雷 aka 哥们儿), Female Psychologist (女心理师) by Bi Shumin (毕淑敏), and two prison blogs.
Danwei Archives
Danwei Feeds
Via Feedsky rsschiclet2.png (on the mainland)
or Feedburner rsschiclet.gif (blocked in China)
rsschiclet2.png rsschiclet.gif Main posts: All main page posts
rsschiclet2.png rsschiclet.gif Top Links: Links from the top bar
rsschiclet2.png rsschiclet.gif Danwei Jobs: Want ads
rsschiclet2.png rsschiclet.gif Danwei Digest: Updated daily, 19:30